A Qualitative Assessment of Health Commodities Forecasting and Quantification at Namibia Medical Stores (NMS)

Ruusa Megameno Ambambi; Moses Waiganjo

Authors

Ruusa Megameno Ambambi Author
Moses Waiganjo Author

Keywords:

Health Commodities, Forecasting Methods, Quantification, Supply Chain Management, Central Medical Stores, Namibia

Abstract

Background

Healthcare supply chain is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting and quantification that directly influences the access to necessary medicines. This paper evaluated the existing forecasting and quantification practices used at the Central Medical Stores (CMS) in Namibia to avail the strengths, weaknesses and areas of improvement.

Methods

The qualitative case study design was employed. The semi-structured interviews with 15 purposely selected key stakeholders who were engaged in health commodity management at CMS were used to gather the data. The interviews were complemented by documentary analysis of the relevant reports and guidelines. Atlas.ti software was used in the thematic analysis.

Results

The research established that CMS uses a two-way strategy, which involves the use of a qualitative and quantitative forecasting model. Quantitative models comprise analysis of safety stock, analysis of historical consumption and analysis of demand forecasting models as well as inventory simulation models. Qualitative approaches are based on the subject opinion of the expert, the Delphi approach, and the contributions of the vendor/supplier. The main informational input that drives these techniques are historical data, purchase lead times, population health, and the health facility inventory levels.

Conclusions

Although CMS is built on a well-organized foundation of forecasting, the use of historical data and manual and Excel-based forecasting present bias and restrict the accuracy and responsiveness. As a way of enhancing the quantification processes, it is recommended that CMS integrate advanced analytical tools, automate data workflows, and enhance staff capacity in quantitative forecasting techniques.

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